[ihc-hide-content ihc_mb_type="show" ihc_mb_who="2,4,5" ihc_mb_template="1" ] <div class="w640 fr clear"> <div class="media VCSortableInPreviewMode"><img title="越南股市在下跌超過 4% 後通常會如何波動?" src="https://cafefcdn.com/thumb_w/640/203337114487263232/2025/7/29/avatar1753804041801-17538040421791713580751.jpeg" alt="越南股市在下跌超過 4% 後通常會如何波動?" data-role="cover" /></div> <div class="clearall"></div> <div data-check-position="body_start"></div> <div class="contentdetail"> <div id="mainContent" class="detail-cmain ss"> <div class="detail-content afcbc-body" data-role="content"> <span dir="auto">越南股市剛暴跌64點(-4.11%),胡志明市證券交易所的流動性也創下逾67兆越南盾的紀錄。這並非「股票交易員」第一次經歷如此劇烈的市場波動。</span> <span dir="auto">過去,越南股市曾經歷過多次波動,VN 指數的跌幅甚至超過 7 月 29 日的交易日。自 2013 年初 HoSE 波動幅度恢復到 +/-7% 以來,VN 指數已 27 次在一個交易日內下跌超過 4%,其中大部分發生在 2020 年至 2022 年期間,當時新冠疫情給全球金融市場蒙上了陰影。</span> <figure class="VCSortableInPreviewMode noCaption"> <div><a class="detail-img-lightbox" title="" href="https://cafefcdn.com/203337114487263232/2025/7/29/screenshot-2025-07-29-at-164305-1753804043515-17538040437211732384896.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-fancybox="img-lightbox"><img class="lightbox-content" title="越南股市在下跌超過 4% 後通常會如何波動? - 照片 1。" src="https://cafefcdn.com/203337114487263232/2025/7/29/screenshot-2025-07-29-at-164305-1753804043515-17538040437211732384896.png" alt="越南股市在下跌超過 4% 後通常會如何波動? - 照片 1。" width="" height="" data-original="https://cafefcdn.com/203337114487263232/2025/7/29/screenshot-2025-07-29-at-164305-1753804043515-17538040437211732384896.png" /></a></div></figure> <span dir="auto">從年初到上個交易日,越南股市也經歷了兩次大幅下跌,其中VN指數在4月初受關稅衝擊而下跌超過6%。歷史數據顯示,市場在深度下跌後波動難以預測,很大程度取決於當時的具體情況。</span> <span dir="auto">正面的一面是,下跌後迅速反彈的可能性仍然較大。根據統計,VN-Index 在26個交易日中,有15個交易日在跌幅超過4%後立即上漲,對應的機率接近58%。從更長的時間範圍來看,VN-Index 在一週(5個交易日)內,在暴跌後立即上漲的次數也達到了15次(共26次)。</span> <span dir="auto">從2020年到2022年中,隨著一波新投資者的現金流不斷湧入市場,越南指數在每次下跌後都展現了相當快速的反彈能力。在此期間,該指數經常在深度下跌後的下一個交易日和交易週出現相當強勁的反彈。</span> <span dir="auto">2022年下半年,股市遭遇暴跌,情勢出現逆轉。 2022年5月12日至13日,越南股市指數甚至連續兩個交易日下跌超過4%。 2023年,越南股市迅速回升,在隨後一個交易日以及深跌一週後,越南股市指數再次上漲。</span> <div class="h-show-pc"> <div class="c-banner"> <div class="c-banner-item is-custom-size"> <div class="c-banner-item__inner"> <div class="c-banner-item__box"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="admzone480458"> <div id="zone-480458"> <div id="share-jtgyri8j"> <div id="placement-jzjm4dn1"> <div id="banner-480458-jzjm4dna"> <div id="slot-1-480458-jzjm4dna"> <div id="ssppagebid_400"> <div id="adnzone_516418" class="banner0" data-ssp="sspbid_201014" data-admssprqid="0116rcdcq466g04" data-location="5" data-width="undefined" data-height="undefined"> <div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="h-show-mobile"> <div class=""> <div class="c-banner"> <div class="c-banner-item is-custom-size"> <div class="c-banner-item__inner"> <div class="c-banner-item__box"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <span dir="auto">今年4月關稅緊張期間,由於資訊流通不暢,市場在深度下跌後表現出不確定性。然而,當估值回落至歷史罕見的吸引水平,且出現更多正面訊息時,市場強勁反彈。</span> <span dir="auto">目前的市場環境與以往的深度下跌截然不同。 VN指數在經歷了一段持續上漲且未出現實質回檔後,目前處於歷史高點。因此,出現較大的獲利回吐壓力在所難免。然而,目前尚無明顯跡象顯示支撐市場的論點正在改變。</span> <figure class="VCSortableInPreviewMode noCaption"> <div><a class="detail-img-lightbox" title="" href="https://cafefcdn.com/203337114487263232/2025/7/29/screenshot-2025-07-29-at-171452-1753804044466-17538040446601118377734.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-fancybox="img-lightbox"><img class="lightbox-content" title="越南股市在下跌超過 4% 後通常會如何波動? - 照片 2。" src="https://cafefcdn.com/203337114487263232/2025/7/29/screenshot-2025-07-29-at-171452-1753804044466-17538040446601118377734.png" alt="越南股市在下跌超過 4% 後通常會如何波動? - 照片 2。" width="" height="" data-original="https://cafefcdn.com/203337114487263232/2025/7/29/screenshot-2025-07-29-at-171452-1753804044466-17538040446601118377734.png" /></a></div></figure> <span dir="auto">外國基金Pyn Elite Fund負責人Petri Deryng先生在最近致投資者的一封信中表示,越南股市近期上漲受到一系列積極因素的推動。宏觀經濟消息為出口和投資資本流動帶來了正面的預期。</span> <span dir="auto">全球金融市場方面,聯準會已暗示未來6至12個月將啟動新一輪降息週期。此舉將利好越南債券市場,並支撐越南盾穩定或升值的預期。</span> <span dir="auto">對內,堅定實施8%的GDP成長目標,透過推動基礎設施公共投資、降低增值稅、加速房地產項目批准、放鬆信貸等措施支持經濟成長。</span> <span dir="auto">同時,隨著越南交易體系的持續現代化,人們對越南將於今年9月被富時指數公司升級為新興市場的預期也日益清晰。市場基礎設施和法律走廊的改革也持續增強了越南升級的前景。</span> <span dir="auto">基金經理人認為,到2025年聖誕節前,越南指數可能達到1,800點並非不切實際。然而,投資人仍需關注國內投資人短期獲利回吐活動可能引發的技術性回檔。</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="w640 fr clear"> <div class="t-contentdetail content_source"></div> <div class="bottom-info clearfix"> <div id="urlSourceCafef" class="link-source-wrapper is-web clearfix"></div> </div> <div data-check-position="body_end"></div> <div id="admzonek1frz8jr" class="pushed"> <div id="zone-l165m25g-1753839852889258201"> <div id="share-l165m267"> <div id="placement-l165q53y"> <div id="banner-l165m25g-l165q54j"> <div id="slot-1-l165m25g-l165q54j"> <div id="ssppagebid_12096"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="zone-kq8zddh7"> <div id="share-kq8zde5x"> <div id="placement-kzmfqyhf"> <div id="banner-kq8zddh7-kzmfqz7b"> <div id="slot-1-kq8zddh7-kzmfqz7b"><a href="https://lg1.logging.admicro.vn/cpx_cms?dmn=https%3A%2F%2Fcafef.vn%2Fchung-khoan-viet-nam-thuong-bien-dong-ra-sao-sau-phien-roi-sau-hon-4-18825072922491121.chn&zid=kq8zddh7&pli=kzmfqyhf&cmpg=kzmfiuu4&items=kzmfqz7b&cat=%2fthi-truong-chung-khoan%2fdetail%2f&cov=1&pgid=175383984586833998&uid=8960591073141302553&re=https%3A%2F%2Fcafef.vn%2Fdownload-app.html&lc=5" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" aria-label="阿爾夫"><img src="https://static-cmsads.admicro.vn/cmsads/2022/08/chun-1661393801346.jpeg" alt="" /></a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="zone-k1frz8jr"> <div id="share-k1frz8k3"> <div id="placement-k1fwadaf"> <div id="banner-k1frz8jr-k1fwadao"> <div id="slot-1-k1frz8jr-k1fwadao"> <div id="ssppagebid_4162"> <div id="sspbid_2030978" class="banner0" data-ssp="sspbid_2030978" data-admssprqid="0116rcdd0r27001" data-location="5" data-width="undefined" data-height="undefined"><iframe id="ads-place-2030978" width="0" height="0" scrolling="no" data-mce-fragment="1"></iframe></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="sharemxh bot"> <div class=" mgr5 mt-3"> <div class="fb-send" data-href="https://cafef.vn/chung-khoan-viet-nam-thuong-bien-dong-ra-sao-sau-phien-roi-sau-hon-4-18825072922491121.chn"></div> </div> <div class="mt-3 fb_share"><a class="kbwcs-fb facebook_share_button sendsocial" rel="facebook" data-href="https://cafef.vn/chung-khoan-viet-nam-thuong-bien-dong-ra-sao-sau-phien-roi-sau-hon-4-18825072922491121.chn" data-title="Chứng khoán Việt Nam thường biến động ra sao sau phiên rơi sâu hơn 4%?"><span dir="auto">分享</span><span class="kbwcs-number fr fsh-count"><span dir="auto">0</span></span></a></div> <div class="mt-3"> <div class="fb-like fb_iframe_widget" data-href="https://cafef.vn/chung-khoan-viet-nam-thuong-bien-dong-ra-sao-sau-phien-roi-sau-hon-4-18825072922491121.chn" data-layout="button_count" data-size="small" data-action="like" data-show-faces="false" data-share="false"><iframe class="" title="fb:like Facebook 社群插件" src="https://web.facebook.com/v10.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&app_id=127760087237610&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fx%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2F%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df3af0eb4282d9847f%26domain%3Dcafef.vn%26is_canvas%3Dfalse%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fcafef.vn%252Ff63dce504524d8a8f%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=https%3A%2F%2Fcafef.vn%2Fchung-khoan-viet-nam-thuong-bien-dong-ra-sao-sau-phien-roi-sau-hon-4-18825072922491121.chn&layout=button_count&locale=vi_VN&sdk=joey&share=false&show_faces=false&size=small" name="f2bd6a992a9327d34" width="1000px" height="1000px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" data-testid="fb:like Facebook Social Plugin" data-mce-fragment="1"></iframe></div> </div> </div> <div id="ContentPlaceHolder1_pnShowTag" class="tagdetail"> <div class="row1"><i class="sprite icontag"></i><b><span dir="auto">關鍵字:</span></b></div> <div class="row2" data-marked-zoneid="cafef_detail_tag"><a title="越南" href="https://cafef.vn/viet-nam.html"><span dir="auto">越南,</span></a><a title="流動性" href="https://cafef.vn/thanh-khoan.html"><span dir="auto">流動性,</span></a><a title="稅" href="https://cafef.vn/thue.html"><span dir="auto">稅,</span></a><a title="國內生產毛額" href="https://cafef.vn/gdp.html"><span dir="auto">國內生產毛額,</span></a><a title="估價" href="https://cafef.vn/dinh-gia.html"><span dir="auto">估值,</span></a><a title="vn 指數" href="https://cafef.vn/vn-index.html"><span dir="auto">vn 指數,</span></a><a title="庫存" href="https://cafef.vn/chung-khoan.html"><span dir="auto">庫存,</span></a><a title="利率" href="https://cafef.vn/lai-suat.html"><span dir="auto">利率,</span></a><a title="升級" href="https://cafef.vn/nang-hang.html"><span dir="auto">升級,</span></a><a title="公共投資" href="https://cafef.vn/dau-tu-cong.html"><span dir="auto">公共投資</span></a></div> </div> <div class="ads_admzone102"> <div id="admzone102" class="pushed"> <div id="zone-102"> <div id="share-jtgyrgpl"> <div id="placement-566504"> <div id="banner-102-566594"> <div id="slot-1-102-566594"> <div id="ssppagebid_1658"> <div id="adnzone_477168" class="banner1" data-ssp="sspbid_1191" data-admssprqid="0116rcdcq466g09" data-location="5" data-width="300" data-height="250"> <div></div> <iframe id="adnzone_sponsor_477168" scrolling="no" data-mce-fragment="1"></iframe></div> <div id="nativezone_509985_1192" class="banner2" data-ssp="sspbid_1192" data-admssprqid="0116rcdcq466g03" data-location="5" data-width="300" data-height="250"><iframe id="native_ad_ifr_509985_1192" frameborder="no" scrolling="no" data-bid="626246" data-mce-fragment="1"></iframe></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="clearfix" data-marked-zoneid="cf_detail_b1"> <div class="tincungmucdetail"></div> </div> [/ihc-hide-content]